For decades, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been marketed as a cornerstone of U.S.-Africa relations. Recently, the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) lauded the U.S. House of Representatives’ vote to extend the program, calling it a significant milestone and a mutually beneficial relationship. KAM points to the 68,000 jobs in Kenya’s apparel sector and the $730 million in annual revenue as evidence of success.
KAM further welcomed a 16-month retrospective extension, asserting that it supports business continuity and reinforces economic, political, and social ties. However, a deeper look at the numbers and the geopolitical fine print reveals that this celebratory stance masks a darker reality: AGOA was designed by the U.S., for the U.S., and it has never truly benefited the Kenyan people in a way that creates lasting wealth.
1. The myth of the favourable ablance
KAM asserts that AGOA has resulted in a favourable trade balance. The actual data suggests otherwise. Since its inception in 2000, the United States has enjoyed a cumulative trade surplus of $1.7 billion over Kenya.
- AGOA was designed to open African markets to high-value American goods while keeping African industry tethered to low-value exports. While Kenya exports basic t-shirts and coffee (72% of exports are apparel), the U.S. exports high-tech machinery, petroleum gas, and aircraft parts.
- Kenya is trading its labor and raw resources for expensive American intellectual property. This isn’t a partnership; it is a system that incentivizes Kenya to remain a source of cheap labor for American brands, rather than an independent industrial power.
2. Africa as a pawn
The 2026 renewal discussions have explicitly shifted away from “development” and toward strategic competition. Washington leadership has openly stated that AGOA is a tool to “counter Chinese and Russian influence.”
- Conditional Sovereignty: To stay eligible, Kenya must comply with eligibility standards that give the U.S. oversight over Kenya’s internal political and market systems.
- The Political Leash: Market access is used as a weapon. If Kenya pursues a foreign policy that disagrees with Washington, such as strengthening ties with other BRICS nations, the preferences can be revoked instantly. This turns trade into a tool of geopolitical blackmail, where African manufacturers are used as pawns in a “New Cold War.”
3. Retrospective band-aids
The 16-month retrospective extension celebrated by KAM is a tactical failure. Retrospective simply means the U.S. is covering past costs, which does nothing to provide the long-term certainty required for serious industrial investment.
Any gains from AGOA are increasingly negated by the broader U.S. trade policy of 2025/2026, which includes “national security” tariffs and universal duties of 10%–30%. These new costs often wipe out the very preferences the U.S. claims to be giving with its other hand.
4. From AGOA to AfCFTA
The most damaging effect of the obsession with AGOA is that it distracts from the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
While AGOA encourages an extraction-first economy aimed at Western supply chains, the AfCFTA offers the only real path to sovereignty. Instead of begging for access to a U.S. market that can be shut down on a whim, Kenya should be lead-loading the integration of a 1.5 billion-person African market.
Real growth won’t come from sewing buttons for American corporations; it will come from manufacturing Kenyan cars, electronics, and pharmaceuticals to be traded across the continent. By prioritizing 6,000 U.S. tariff lines over continental integration, we are effectively choosing a golden cage over true economic freedom.
It is time to stop celebrating gifts from Washington that come with strings attached. Kenya’s future does not lie in a 25-year-old unilateral preference scheme; it lies in the economic sovereignty of the AfCFTA. We must stop being a pawn in the West’s rivalry and start building an Africa that trades with itself.