A new research by Standard Chartered titled Future of Trade 2030: Trends and markets to watch projects that global exports will grow by 70% from USD 17.4 trillion to USD 29.7 trillion over the next decade. The report reveals 13 markets that will drive much of this growth, identifies major corridors, and five trends shaping the future of global trade.
Kenya is a key driver if this global trade growth, with its exports projected to grow at an average annual rate of more than 7% to cross Ksh. 1.2 trillion (USD 10.2 billion) by 2030. The research also found that 10% of global corporates currently do or plan to manufacture in Kenya within the next five to 10 years.
According to the report, Pakistan will be the fastest growing export corridor for Kenya, set to grow at an average annual rate of 10.7%. Uganda and the USA will continue to be the leading export corridors for Kenya, accounting for 11% and 9% of total exports in 2030, respectively.
The following sectors will dominate exports in 2030, based on Standard Chartered’s analysis of historical data and expected trends.
|1.Agriculture and food|
|2. Metals and minerals|
|3. Textile and apparel|
Global overview: 13 markets driving future trade growth
|Market||Exports in 2030 (USD)||Average annual growth rate||Key corridors|
|Bangladesh||51bn||7%||India, UAE, USA|
|Hong Kong||939bn||5.7%||Japan, Mainland China, USA|
|India||563bn||7.6%||Hong Kong, Singapore, USA|
|Indonesia||347bn||8.1%||India, Mainland China, USA|
|Kenya||10bn||7.7%||Pakistan, Uganda, USA|
|Mainland China||5,022bn||7.1%||Germany, Malaysia, Vietnam|
|Malaysia||498bn||8.3%||India, Mainland China, Singapore|
|Nigeria||112bn||9.7%||India, Indonesia, Mainland China|
|Saudi Arabia||354bn||7.6%||India, Mainland China, South Korea|
|Singapore||687bn||7.4%||India, Mainland China, Malaysia|
|South Korea||971bn||7.1%||India, Mainland China, Vietnam|
|UAE||298bn||6.1%||India, Mainland China, Singapore|
|Vietnam||535bn||7.0%||India, Mainland China, USA|
The report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC, is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030. Global trade will be reshaped by the following key trends.
- The wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices
- A push for more inclusive participation
- Greater risk diversification
- More digitization
- Rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets
Almost 90% of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends will shape the future of trade and will form part of their five to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies. The research also found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism. However, while almost 90% of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34% ranked it as a top three priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.
Commenting on the report, Makabelo Malumane, Head Transaction Banking Standard Chartered said, “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalization is still working, despite recent dislocation. In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents.”