This year in-store smartphone purchases worldwide will increase by more than 1,000 percent from last year. While the mobile wallet won’t replace the traditional wallet yet, 2015 will be a tipping point toward wider consumer adoption of in-store smartphone payments. This is according to the 14th edition of Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions, a report by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (Deloitte Global). Additionally, Deloitte Global predicts that print books will continue to dominate the publishing industry and account for 80 percent of all book sales by dollars and units, and that 2015 will be the year where enterprise will be ahead of consumers for adoption of new technologies such as 3D printing, Internet of Things (IoT) and drones.
Also, counter to previous industry predictions around the smartphone reaching a plateau, Deloitte Global predicts there will be 1 billion upgrades in 2015, signaling that the market has not yet matured or stagnated.
Last year signaled a shift away from a decade-long trend of consumerization of Information Technology (IT), for example, with a modest consumer uptake of wearable technology like smart glasses. In 2015, however, Deloitte Global predicts the pendulum to swing further toward enterprise led adoption with wearables, 3D printing, drones and the IoT meeting more needs and generating higher sales for business than consumers.
Some of the TMT predictions that will have the greatest impact in 2015 include:
The Internet of things really is things, not people
In 2015, over 60 percent of the one billion global wireless IoT devices will be bought, paid for and used by enterprises. The IoT-specific hardware will be worth $10 billion, but the big story is the enterprise services enabled by the devices: about $70 billion.
The end of the consumerization of IT?
In 2015, the pendulum of technology adoption will begin to swing back to the enterprise market, reversing a decade long trend that went the other way – when mass adoption of technologies like large screen smartphones and tablets started with consumer adoption first.
Drones: high-profile and niche
Drones will have multiple industrial and civil government applications. Deloitte predicts sales of non-military drones (also known as unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs), to be about 300,000 units, driving the installed base to over a million. Although consumers will buy the majority, most of the real value will come from enterprise use.
3D printing is a revolution: Just not the revolution you think
In 2015, nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a dollar value of $1.6 billion, but it is unlikely that there will be a “factory in every home.” Deloitte estimates about 80 percent of the value of all 3D printers will be for companies instead of consumers, meaning the real revolution will be in the enterprise market.
For the first time, the smartphone upgrade market will exceed one billion
1.35 billion smartphones will sell worldwide in 2015, but over a billion of them will be upgrades – new phones for those who already have one. The upgrade cycle may be lengthening, but screen size, speed, storage, software and design will continue to drive growth for smartphone refreshes.
Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television
The total time spent watching online short-form video clips and other programming of less than 20 minutes in length, will represent less than 3 percent of all video seen in the year globally. Deloitte does not expect short-form online content to usurp long-form traditional television and movie content. Shorter form content will grow, but it is unlikely to become the predominant video format, as measured by hours watched or revenues.
Smartphone batteries: better but no breakthrough
Longer battery life is likely to remain a key factor for consumer’s choosing their next smartphone. The rechargeable, lithium ion (Li-Ion) battery technology used in all smartphones will improve only modestly in 2015, with no more than five percent greater unit charge or milliampere hours (mAh) compared to a 2014 model of the same dimensions and voltage.
Deloitte’s annual Global TMT Predictions provides a 12-18 month outlook on key trends in the technology, media and telecommunications industry worldwide. Full details about the global TMT Predictions are available here.