The latest climate outlook for the October to December 2025 rainy season predicts a high likelihood of below normal rainfall and warmer than usual temperatures across most of the Greater Horn of Africa.
This forecast was released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) during the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 71). The OND season is particularly crucial for countries like Kenya and Somalia, where it can account for up to 70% of the annual rainfall.
Rainfall
- Below-normal rainfall is most likely over the eastern parts of the region, including southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, and eastern Kenya.
- In contrast, above-normal rainfall is expected in some western areas, such as southeastern South Sudan, northeastern and southwestern Uganda, and parts of northern Rwanda.
- The start of the rainy season is predicted to be delayed for eastern regions like southern Somalia and central/eastern Kenya, while western areas should experience a normal to early onset.
Temperatures
- Generally, warmer-than-average temperatures are expected throughout the region, with the strongest signal in the east.
- Some areas, particularly along the borders of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, may experience average or cooler-than-average conditions.
Officials at the forum stressed the importance of using this information to prepare for the season’s impacts.
Mohamed Ware, Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, emphasized the need for collaboration to ensure this crucial climate information “reaches the last mile” and drives “timely action” to protect communities.
Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Deborah M. Barasa, added that “bridging the early warning gap” requires a united regional approach to strengthen climate resilience.
Mr. Edward Muriuki, Acting Director, Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) said, “Early warning systems save lives only when they reach everyone, including the most vulnerable. At KMD, we remain committed to providing accurate and timely climate services that support communities to plan, adapt, and build resilience.”
This climate outlook serves as a critical early warning for governments and organizations to prepare for potential drought-like conditions and their effects on food security, water resources, and other vital sectors.